The Libdems should be more positive about marginal seat polls…

The Times’ claims, that voters in the South West (SW) are turning away from the Libdems towards the Tories, need to be considered in the context of an Angus Reid’s analysis by Anthony Wells on marginal seat data (also note the unrealiable use of individual comments by The Times being constructed as representative of the majority Libdem to Tory voters in the SW). Wells refers to how an alternative approach to discovering voting intentions that encouraged the voters to have more consideration of local factors actually substantially increased the Liberal Democrat vote. Commenting on the swings reported in the Liberal Democrat/Tory marginals he urged caution, stating:

“My guess is that this is because people do not factor in local candidates or tactical decisions when answering voting intention questions (or perhaps do not consider these things at all until an election is called). Naturally enough, these factors weigh the heaviest in Lib Dem constituencies.”

The Tories need to realise that money is not all that matters in politics. Yes, it provides them the unfair advantage, especially if the opportunity comes for them to call a quick second election. However, it is promising to consider the importance of the local success of our representatives.

However, we do have to consider the possibility that this swing may reflect reality. If this is the case, it relates to my recent argument for a LibDem counter narrative to ‘Broken Britain’. Instead of focusing on Thatcher as The Times reports, we have to focus more on Cameron, his ‘policies’ and how he only represents negative ‘change’. An interesting response to my suggestion of a counter narrative focused on the possibility of reclaiming the word ‘Broken’ and using it to refer to what is actually broken in politics: constitutional affairs and abuse of civil liberties, for example.

Suprisingly, it is right to conclude with a quote from Lord Rennard who provides us LibDems a beacon of hope if we feel disheartened at poll marginal expectations or just angry at how much money influences politics:

“Where we have a very good popular local MP then we tend to retain them. Incumbency has become much more of a factor in retaining seats — but especially so for Lib Dems.”